Climate Forum ry: Het effect van opwarming door kooldioxide in het IPCC-klimaatmodel is 200% te hoog ingeschat
De bijdrage van kooldioxide aan het broeikaseffect bedraagt slechts 7%, niet 26%.
HELSINKI-(BUSINESS WIRE)- Het broeikaseffect is volgens het IPCC te wijten aan de lange golfabsorptie van 156 Wm-2 door broeikasgassen en deels door wolken. Deze absorptieflux moet in staat zijn om terug te stralen naar de aarde, wat volgens de natuurkundige wetten voor energiebesparing onmogelijk is. Het totale effect van broeikasgassen is ongeveer 50% lager dan de heersende theorie.
Andere energiebronnen naast de absorptie van lange golfstraling zijn de absorptie van korte golfstraling door de broeikasgassen en latente en voelbare opwarming van de aarde. Samen verklaren deze vier energiebronnen perfect de herstralingsflux van de atmosfeer aan het aardoppervlak.
Climate Forum ry: The Carbon Dioxide Warming Effect of the IPCC’s Climate Model is 200% Too Great
The contribution of carbon dioxide to the greenhouse effect is only 7%, not 26%.
HELSINKI–(BUSINESS WIRE)– The greenhouse effect, according to the IPCC, is due to the longwave absorption of 156 Wm-2 by greenhouse gases and partly by clouds. This absorption flux should be able to reradiate back to the Earth 346 Wm-2, which is impossible according to the energy conservation laws of physics. The overall effect of greenhouse gases is about 50% lower than the prevailing theory.
Other energy sources beside longwave radiation absorption are shortwave radiation absorption by the greenhouse gases and latent and sensible heating. Together, these four energy sources perfectly explain the reradiation flux by the atmosphere on the Earth’s surface. The total absorption contribution of 2.4 °C by carbon dioxide (CO2) of 400 ppm means that the carbon dioxide warming effect of the IPCC’s calculations is about 200% too high.
“The portions of individual contributors are: water 45.6%, latent heating 30.8%, sensible heating 8.2%, carbon dioxide 7.3%, ozone 6.1%, clouds 0.9%, methane & nitrogen oxide 0.7% and aerosols 0.3%. The cloud effect is minimal, and it differs from other earlier studies (19% and 39%) because these studies do not consider the reduction of solar insolation by clouds,” said Ollila.
The reproduction of the radiative forcing by CO2 gave a 41.6% lower value for 560 ppm than the same of the IPCC. The radiative forcing values are transformed into warming values by the climate sensitivity parameter (CSP). The CSP value of the IPCC is 0.5 K/(Wm-2), which includes so-called positive water feedback, and which doubles the warming effects of greenhouse gases. According to this study, the CSP value is 0.27 K/(Wm-2). The direct humidity and temperature observations confirm that there is no positive water feedback in the atmosphere,” said Ollila.
“The warming effect of CO2, according to the radiative forcing equation and the CSP value of this study, can be nicely fitted into the overall greenhouse effect of CO2, but it is not the case in the simple model of the IPCC,” said Ollila.
Journal Reference:
Ollila, Antero. Challenging the greenhouse effect specification and the climate sensitivity of the IPCC. Physical Science International Journal, 22(2): 1-19, 2019. http://www.journalpsij.com/index.php/PSIJ/article/view/30127/56520
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190527005324/en/
Contacts
Climate Forum ry
Dr. Antero Ollila, Adjunct Associate Professor, Emeritus
tel. +358442437365
aveollila@yahoo.com
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